The disproportionate increase in
the Muslim population in eastern India, both on account of continuing migration
and higher fertility vis-à-vis other communities, has triggered major
demographic distortions. The growth has been particularly steep in Assam, West
Bengal, and Bihar, and is nearing double digit figures in Manipur and Tripura
(Census 2011 religious demography figures have not been revealed so far).
Censuses
since 1951 show a sustained rise in Muslim population, in absolute and
percentage terms, and a nation-wide corresponding decline in numbers of Hindu
Faiths (Hindus, Sikhs, Jains, and Buddhists). By Census 1981, Muslim population
growth stood at nearly 45 per cent higher rate than Hindus and Christians.
Census 2001 put the decadal growth rate of Muslims at around 36%, while Hindu
growth rate declined from 23 per cent to 20 per cent.
State-wise
Religious Demography delineated in Census 2001 (which does not include illegal
immigrants without ration / Voter Identity Cards) suggests that huge political
changes loom ahead. In eastern India alone, the percentage of Muslim population
in the States is, in descending order: Assam (30.92 per cent); West Bengal
(25.25 per cent); Bihar (16.53per cent); Manipur (8.81 per cent); Tripura (7.95
per cent); Meghalaya (4.28 per cent); Arunachal Pradesh (1.88 per cent);
Nagaland (1.76 per cent); Sikkim (1.42 per cent); Mizoram (1.14 per cent).
In
Assam, districts with the highest Muslim populations include, in descending
order: Dhubri (74.3 per cent); Barpeta (59.4 per cent); Hailakandi (57.6 per
cent); Goalpara (53.7 per cent); Karimganj (52.3 per cent); Nagaon (51 per
cent); Marigaon 47.6 per cent); Bongaigaon (38.5 per cent); Cachar (36.1 per
cent); Darrang (35.5 per cent); Nalbari (22.1 per cent); Kokrajhar (20.4 per
cent). Thus, five districts are already Muslim majority; four are on the way to
becoming so.
Similarly,
in West Bengal, districts with the highest Muslim population include, in
descending order: Murshidabad (63.7 per cent); Maldah (49.7 per cent); Dinajpur
(composite) (38.5 per cent); South 24-Parganas (33.2 per cent); Howrah (24.4
per cent); Kooch Behar (24.2 per cent); Kolkata (20.3 per cent).
Can
this changing demography be explained as simply the natural movement of peoples
in a geo-cultural biosphere which pre-exists current international boundaries?
Analysts with deep memories say much of the impetus is political, as Pakistan
resented the failure to have Assam included in East Pakistan in 1947.
Zulfiqar
Ali Bhutto made a pointed reference to this in his book, Myths of Independence.
Even Sheikh Mujibur Rahman (Eastern Pakistan: Its population and Economics)
claimed that East Pakistan needed land for expansion and wanted Assam for its
abundant forest and mineral resources, coal and petroleum. The original map of
the Muslim League before 1947 included the whole of India’s north-east! China
is thus a newcomer in the queue for parts of our North-East.
A
critical component of the current crisis is that Bodos never comprised the
majority in the area carved out for the Bodoland Territorial Council in 2003.
The Bangladeshi Muslims who are in majority in Dhubri district bordering
Bangladesh are now exerting pressure on the Bodo heartland of Kokrajhar
district. They derive political muscle from the All-India United Democratic
Front of Maulana Badruddin Ajmal, All-Assam Minority Students Union, and Asom
Mia Parishad. The AIUDF demand that the BTC be abolished as Bodos are not the
majority in large areas covered by it, or non-Bodo representation be increased,
naturally escalates tensions.
The farcical Illegal Migrants
(Determination by Tribunal) Act, which made it virtually impossible to detect
and deport nearly two million illegals, has not helped matters. Had the 1985
Assam Accord signed by Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi and the All-Assam Student
Union been sincerely implemented, the National Register of Citizens would have
been updated and curtailed infiltration from Bangladesh. Concerned citizens now
feel that Census 1951 – first Census of independent India – should be the basis
for the National Register of Citizens.
The
gravity of the problem can be seen from Election Commissioner HS Brahma’s
admission in a newspaper article that the Election Commission of India has to
tackle the problem of nearly 1.5 lakh ‘D-Voters’ (doubtful voters) while
preparing the Assam electoral rolls. Currently this matter is sub-judice, but
it is a bullet the courts will have to bite eventually as it poses a serious
security threat to the nation. India can no longer fight shy of the need to
deport illegal migrants. Else it must be prepared for recurrent bouts of
bloodletting.
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